Super time again

NB--

So now we come to the payoff. Super time again. The 43rd edition of the Big Enchilada, and on the surface, it's hard to make a case against the hated Pittsburghers. Let's get it out front--as a devout Cincy fan, I have loathed the black and gold since I was in pantaloons. I've had to eat five championships for the Steel City, and I fear a sixth. Defensively, they are dominant, as good as Baltimore in 2000 or the G-men in 1986. Their pass rush is everywhere and non-stop, their linebackers make plays and are sure tacklers, and the secondary can play press coverage and ballhawk, led by the invincible HairGod at safety.

But I dare to dream, and I'm looking for ways the scrappy, plucky, up from the desert floor Arizona redbirds can pull a second straight Super Upset. Certainly, it isn't impossible. I turn my adoring gaze toward the ageless QB. Of course, this isn't his first rodeo, having split a couple of SB's. And his play in this postseason has been exemplary. No one is quicker at getting rid of the ball under duress--he led the league in QB rating against the blitz. Special K is smart, tough, and won't get rattled either by the stage or the pass rush. Because of that factor, they have a shot.

So why can't he pull this off?
RW

Robert, Robert, Robert. I gotta hand it to you – fan of the people, speaking up on behalf of the underdog. But that’s part of the hilarity surrounding the main event: not only is everyone talking about it, all they’re talking about is Arizona. Lost in the cuddly, rags-to-riches ascension on the Venus Flytraps of Larry Fitz is one simple fact:

They ain’t played anyone quite like Pittsburgh.

It starts with the defense. Notice I’m not singling out any one player – that’s the thing with this incarnation of the league’s best unit. The pressure comes from both sides, from all three levels, from a ridiculous array of looks. And it’s constant for 60 minutes.

Keep a back in to chip on one edge rusher while you play with fire on the other side. Max protect and all the sudden your gluttony of playmakers are fighting double coverage. Empty it out and you’re living and dying with one-on-one match-ups.

I love what Arizona’s done thus far. Beyond the feel-good vibe, we’ve witnessed the ascension of Fitzgerald into the pantheon of all-time postseason greats. We’re seeing the reincarnation of The Edge. And enough guile from Special K for many pundits to punch his HOF ballot today.

But I love Big Ben even more. He learned in his first Super rodeo that it’s not about completion percentage, yards or awards – it’s about leadership and the win-loss column. Roethlisberger has an opportunity to place his five-year resume at the top of football lore – and he’s approaching this week with backward-hat-wearing utter confidence that eluded him in 2005 in Detroit.

We’ll get into the player matchups more in just a second – how do you see the coaching carousel impacting this title tilt?

Newbs,

I'm glad to see these particular coaches match up. You know it had to crush Ken Whisenhunt to get passed over in Pittsburgh, but the Rooneys were solid enough in their conviction to hire an unknown from outside the organization. Mike Tomlin has proven to be just the right man for the job--and Whisenhunt has done the same, just elsewhere.

I suspect a part of Arizona's late-season doldrums was a canny bit of possum by the coaching staff. With the playoffs assured, they pulled back most of their attacking schemes and played vanilla. It looked bad, but the resulting postseason dominance isn't just a matter of "turning it on" when it matters. Most of football success is about deducing tendencies on film--Arizona has continually surprised the opposition, and much of that is because they didn't give things away in the final month during must-win games. Nice to play in a weak division.

On the other hand, Tomlin has raised Pittsburgh's toughness quotient beyond its already high level. But can toughness cover Fitzgerald? Schematically, Whisenhunt is familiar with Pitt's defensive tendencies, knowing where and when Dick LeBeau likes to unleash his formidable zone blitzes. That's a distinct advantage, but the onus is still going to be on K-Dub and the offensive line to make sure the Birds can capitalize.

You really think Pitt can cover Fitzgerald?
RW

Big Rob:

I don’t think anyone can cover him. And I don’t think it has anything to do with him, either. His partner in crime on the other side plus a third legitimate threat in the slot and the playoff push rebirth of The Edge creates the ultimate pick-your-poison for opposing defenses. That’s why I’m so surprised Arizona’s here – and Fitz has broken every imaginable record in the books: Q has been playing on one leg (or not at all) thus far. That’s why his brilliance through three games is so remarkable.

With two weeks to prepare and get healthy, plus your aforementioned familiarity complex, you’d think ‘Zona has the clear edge. But I just don’t – because even if you know what the other team’s going to do, it all comes down to execution. Pittsburgh’s the best team in the league at maximizing their players’ blend of talents by creating one-on-one matchups. They might double (or triple or quadrouple) Fitz on one play – and come like gangbusters the next. But even then, the key won’t be the “what”, it’ll be the “how”. How the Steelers deploy their arsenal. How they’re able to disguise and confuse. How they execute.

I don’t think you can talk about Pittsburgh and execution without mentioning the dramatically improved state of their offensive line. But when it comes down to it, the execution I’ll really have my eyes on is the Steeler receiving corps. The Fearless One says he’s a go, regardless of how the knee feels. And the rest of the troops appear to have cured the severe case of long-ball dropsies. But they fall in line with their leader – Hines’ impact, just by suiting up – will impact this game one way or the other.

NB,

Yeah, it really does come down to the Arizona D against #7 and the Pittsburgh offense. For all the talk about the inverse matchup, it's the quieter one that's more pivotal. And for all their clutch play and winning ways this season, the Pitt O hasn't been particularly unstoppable. I think the Desert Swarm can make its mark, and keep the game low scoring enough for even an average day from Fitzgerald and Co. to win the day.

So prediction time? I'll go with the Lombardi Trophy headed to the southwest--Arizona 24-20.

Y tu?

RW:

I’m with the Steel City adding one for the other thumb – 27-21.